Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street Review

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(More customer reviews)This is an excellent book about the discovery of the Kelly formula that is unknown outside gambling. This story has three protagonists. Two of them were scientists working at Bell Labs: Claude Shannon, a genius polymath who developed information theory; and John Kelly, a maverick genius, who is directly responsible for the development of Kelly's formula. The third one is a brilliant MIT mathematician, Ed Thorp.
Ed Thorp tested the Kelly formula in both gambling and investing. Also, he came up with an options formula before Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. His formula missed a risk-free rate component due to the structure of the market at the time. As a result, Ed Thorp remained in obscurity while Black and Scholes became famous.
Ed Thorp succeeded in deriving superior returns in both gambling and investing. But, it was not so much because of Kelly's formula. He developed other tools to achieve superior returns. In gambling, Ed Thorp succeeded at Black Jack by developing the card counting method. He just used intuitively Kelly's formula to increase his bets whenever the odds were in his favor. Later, he ran a hedge fund for 20 years until the late 80s and earned a rate of return of 14% handily beating the market's 8% during the period. Also, his hedge fund hardly lost any value on black Monday in October 1987, when the market crashed by 22%. The volatility of his returns was far lower than the market. He did this by exploiting market inefficiencies using warrants, options, and convertible bonds. The Kelly formula was for him a risk management discipline and not a direct source of excess return.
Ed Thorp's career as a hedge fund manager was temporarily cut short. This was due to his fund being involved in a tax-avoiding securities scheme with Drexel Burnham. Thorp was not guilty; but, the fund had to be liquidated. The author stated many of Milken wrongdoings. One included getting large equity positions attached to the junk bonds he issued. The companies thought they were issuing convertible bonds. However, the equity component went straight into Milken's pocket as he sold the bonds to investors as high yield debt with no equity attached.
Ed Thorp rebounded from this mishap and started a second hedge fund in 1994. Thorp continued reaping above market return. As the author states, Ed Thorp's genius consists in "...his continuous ability to discover new market inefficiencies ... as old ones played out." Ed Thorp closed this second fund in 2002. He is now independently exploring inefficiencies in gambling.
Claude Shannon amassed large wealth by recording one of the best investment records. His performance had little to do with Kelly's formula. Between 1966 and 1986, his record beat even Warren Buffet (28% to 27% respectively). Shannon strategy was similar to Buffet. Both their stock portfolios were concentrated, and held for the long term. Shannon achieved his record by holding mainly three stocks (Teledyne, Motorola, and HP). The difference between the two was that Shannon invested in technology because he understood it well, while Buffet did not.
John Kelly was a chain smoking, gun collecting brilliant physicist. He died young at 41 of an aneurysm. He worked closely with Shannon at Bell Labs. Besides being a charismatic character the author does not write much about his life compared to the other two (Shannon and Thorp).
The Kelly formula is Edge/Odds (as explained on page 72). In investment circles, this formula is not always useful because it is hard to quantify your Edge (value of proprietary information). However, Kelly's formula has intuitive practical implications. It entails you should focus on an investment internal rate of return (IRR) instead of its average yearly return. The IRR is always less. Another implication is that higher risk is not always compensated by higher return. There is an optimal risk level beyond which risk taking becomes destructive. The author mentions the Long Term Capital Management as a case in point.
I recommend other excellent similar books: "Fischer Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance" by Perry Mehrling, and "When Genius Failed. The Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital Management" by Roger Lowenstein. Both these books describe luminaries in finance and investment fields who were often in contact with Ed Thorp and Claude Shannon. Another excellent book is Sylvia Nasar's "A Beautiful Mind" about John Nash, the Game Theorist.


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Harbor & Home: Furniture of Southeastern Massachusetts, 1710-1850 Review

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(More customer reviews)This book represents a significant body of research with respect to eighteenth/nineteenth century American furniture. It is superbly produced both for its photography and written content and contains a meticulously chosen collection of the finest examples of early American craftsmanship. This is a "must have," for those who appreciate history, fine American antiquities, and desire an incomparable addition to one's reference library.

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The Essential Gesture Review

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(More customer reviews)Curated by Bruce Guenther, The Essential Gesture juxtaposes contemporary artist's use of the human body in the post-1945 period with a small selection of early modern masterworks to establish a context for that activity and its interpretation. Focusing on the partial or fragmentary figure, the exhibition acknowledges the dominance of the fragment in the twentieth century and posits it as the form most reflective of the present- incomplete, alternately heroic and frail, ferocious and victimized. Published in 1994 by The Orange County Museum of Art.

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The Geometry of Sisters: A Novel Review

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(More customer reviews)Who knew that math would make a good idea for a great read! Combine the math with the close relationships of two generations of sisters and Luanne Rice rates an A plus in my book! As we follow grieving mom Maura Shaw moving her two children Beck and Travis from Ohio to Newport, RI, we learn more about the death of her husband and what caused her oldest daughter Carrie to run away. The sister plot thickens as there is also a deep rift between Maura and her own sister Katherine, some sister ghosts at the academy, and two other rich sisters at the academy. Although I've never had a love for math, this book made me appreciate the different angles, circles, triangles that love and life can take! I also immediately called my sister after finishing "The Geometry of Sisters" - time for bonding and a girl's weekend! Luanne Rice doesn't disappoint again - I love her books!

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A Land as God Made It: Jamestown and the Birth of America Review

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(More customer reviews)We will hear more about the founding of Jamestown, Virginia, as its 400th anniversary approaches in 2007. The anniversary will perhaps restore a balance. According to James Horn, in his stimulating history _A Land as God Made It: Jamestown and the Birth of America_ (Basic Books), many Americans have forgotten Jamestown. They believe that the Pilgrims founded America, but that was in 1620. Even with the appeal of the Jamestown stories of John Smith and Pocahontas, the birth of our nation in Virginia (part of the backwater South) was relegated by professional historians to a status secondary to that of New England (part of the progressive North). The Pilgrims were originally aiming for Virginia, but they missed (or they had a last minute change of plans). It was Jamestown that was the first enduring colony in America, and Jamestown that put into practice three basic principles: "private property in land, a representative assembly for ordering local affairs, and civilian control of the military." Jamestown also was the starting point for slavery in America, and for vicious wars against the indigenous peoples. As Horn notes, America would have been vastly different if Jamestown had failed, and it could have failed at any number of points in its history. This scholarly book, largely through first-hand sources, puts the colony in its rightful place.
Among those first 144 colonists was Captain John Smith, who got into trouble even before landing; he was accused by the leaders of the expedition of plotting "to usurpe the government, murder the Councell, and make himselfe kinge." It isn't clear what the real problem was, but time and again, Smith showed enormous arrogance (an "Ambityous, unworthy, and vayneglorious fellowe") and dissatisfaction when commanded by those he considered less competent than himself (everyone). He was able to stay in the colony less than three years before its leaders sent him back to Britain, never to return. It might have been that British investors in the Virginia Company would have profited from more of his leadership. Smith was a pragmatist who wanted the colony on a sound agricultural footing. The investors, however, were interested in quick riches from finding gold, made moral by bringing the Protestant faith to the Indians. The Company made a huge mistake in neglecting the "smokie weed of Tobacco," which was becoming popular in Europe but which the Company regarded as nothing but a fad. An organized Indian revolt in 1622 hit almost all the English settlements in 1622. By the next year, the Company could not keep its own charter, which was revoked in 1624 and given to the Crown.
"The Virginia Company had collapsed," writes Horn, "not the colony." It was not clear that the Crown would support continuing the settlement, but in 1625 Charles I affirmed that he would keep and protect it as he would all of his other dominions. The Crown supported tobacco growing, as well as economic supports for trade in the weed, and Virginia finally turned a profit. John Smith's idea that vigorous worldwide trade would keep the colony going proved true. Faded were the aims of quickly finding gold, and also lost was the vision of a Christian empire in the new world that would make all the Indians Protestants and form a bulwark against Catholic Spain. As a strictly commercial venture, Jamestown failed, but commerce redeemed the colony; Horn's fascinating and detailed book is a story of human activity in many guises but always fundamentally for profit. That was the basis for the start of our land, and for better or worse has never lost its claim on us.

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A Good Woman: A Novel Review

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(More customer reviews)I have never read a Danielle Steel book before, but if this is any indication of her writing, I will never read another as long as I live. My husband bought this book for me at Costco and was very excited to give it to me, as he thought it sounded interesting. According to the jacket write-up, it should have been interesting. What starts out as a great premise for a book turns out to be boring, trite, lacking in descriptive detail, and repetitive. It was as if we had to keep being reminded, chapter after chapter, about the same information from earlier in the book; as if we forgot what had previously happened in the story. I see Ms. Steel has written a slew of previous novels, many of which were apparently very popular. Maybe she's getting tired, or maybe she's getting paid by the word or something. The only reason I finished this book was, well I'm not sure. Maybe hope that at any moment it would get good. Well, it didn't.

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Love and Hate in Jamestown: John Smith, Pocahontas, and the Start of a New Nation Review

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(More customer reviews)With apologies to Peggy Lee and Walt Disney, they didn't -- but the story of the Indian princess saving Captain John Smith's life is true. In fact, she saved his life on several occasions. But, in the end, believing Smith to be dead, she married another Virginia colonist, John Rolfe, who was not a bad sort although a bit of a prig.
This is the story of the British colony in Virginia from its founding in 1607 until its near destruction by the Indians and reconstruction in the 1620s. Captain John Smith was only in Virginia for the first few years of the colony, but he saved it from disaster over and over again. Surrounded by idle aristocrats who wanted to search for gold rather than grow corn, Smith adopted the no-nonsense policy that those who didn't work didn't eat. Many of the numerous "gentlemen" in the company preferred death to work -- and realized their desires.
I was surprised at how humane and idealistic were the aims of the parent company of Jamestown back in Britain. The company advocated peaceful coexistence with the Indians and there was much criticism of Smith's more aggressive -- and practical -- strategy. In retrospect, it is amazing that Jamestown survived as it was reduced to near nothingness on several occasions by starvation, disease, and Indian attacks. One of the chapters tells of the arrival of the first Negro slaves in the colony -- an ominous portent for the future.
For me the most interesting chapter of the book was about Pocahontas in England and her single meeting after a long separation with John Smith. I was especially amused at the author's speculation that Pocahontas was appalled at the unhealthy and squalid living conditions of the British in London at that time. She died soon afterward, a shame because her memoirs would be even more fascinating than those of Smith. "Love and Hate" is a well-researched and well-written book about a couple whose names will forever be linked in folklore and history.
Smallchief

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Peter "Sugarfoot" Cunningham's Civilized Warring: Fundamental Kickboxing Techniques Review

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(More customer reviews)What a wonderful book. The most appealing thing about it was the author's style of communication. Not only does describe techniques clearly and thoroughly, but I also felt he was right there providing the instructions. His tone was informative and friendly -- he knows his stuff. You will really like Peter, and if you practice what you learn from this book, you will also be on your way to mastering the exciting art of Kickboxing.

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To the Highest Bidder Review

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(More customer reviews)The first book I have found that is written by an insider about the upper tier auction world. I have had first-hand experience with auction house shenanigans and found this book a real eye-opener. A page turning turning story - Must read for anyone who has dealt with auction houses.

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The Sirens of Titan: A Novel Review

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(More customer reviews)I've read many of Kurt Vonnegut's novels, and this is perhaps his best one of all (quite a high complement indeed, when considering the man is, in my opinion at least, one of the foremost writers of the 20th century.) Vonnegut's wit is acerbic and as on-target as ever; this time he expells on us about the meaning of life... or the meaninglessness of it. While this is perhaps not his most profound and meaningful novel (which would probably be Cat's Cradle), and not his most purposeful one (undoubtedly Slaughterhouse-Five), it is perhaps his wittiest and one of his funniest, and works the best as satire. It is astonishingly well-written. Quite a bit leap over his already very good first book, Player Piano. This has more of a plot than later novels would, without using much of the non-linear storytelling format that Vonnegut would later make famous use of.
At this point, I also feel the need to comment on the review titled "whence..." The reviewer is taking the details of this book too seriously. The point of this book is not the plot or the details; it is the principle, the style. The reviewer goes to pains to point out scientific inaccuracies and plot holes in the book (yes, the escape maneuver from Mercury is implausible; yes, things happen in the book without any apparent logic or reason; but neither of these matter in the larger context of the book.) This book is not meant to be hard science fiction; nor should it be compared to scientifically stringent fiction by writers such as Arthur C. Clarke (whom the reviewer referenced.) In fact, I would say that this book is not science fiction at all. It is satire, pure and simple. The scientific ideas and elements in the plot are not meant to be taken seriously (as is often the case with actual hard science fiction; for example, the aformentioned Clarke's "The Fountains of Paradise", in which he propagates his vision for a space elevator.) Vonnegut uses these only as means to an end. This is seriously-intended satire (albeit highly enjoyable to read) put into a science fiction framework. This is actually, I would argue, what makes the book great.
The genius of Vonnegut is that he takes highly serious subjects and puts them into a context in his books that puts them in a universal light where they can be examined: through satire, he places deathly serious subjects in improbable situations where we can all laugh at them, be entertained by them, but also examine their reality in depth. All books by Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. work on two levels. The first is the "skin deep" level, on which the books appear to be merely rough-and-tumble, hilarious, little entertaining adventures. However, there is also the deeper element that is always there, the hard themes that resonate beneath the surface. Many writers treat such things entirely seriously, which is fine, but Vonnegut's style puts it in a format that everyone can relate to. This is why he is such a great and important writer, and why so many of us relate to him and have learned so much from him. Perhaps our most acute AND entertaining social critic, Kurt Vonnegut is an author that we are lucky to have, and this is one of the brightest shining gems in his canon.

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Archie and Amelie: Love and Madness in the Gilded Age Review

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(More customer reviews)I could not put this book down. That's something to say for a biography--or dual biography, actually. I was astonished at the ease with which Ms. Lucey spun off on side stories of interesting relatives or events without ever losing the train of the main story. Her depth of research, all well documented, is mind-boggling. Even the acknowledgements, where she tells about her interviews and the serendipitous discovery of an old trunk full of letters, was intriguing. Archie and Amelie were fascinating, larger-than-life people living in a larger-than-life age and circumstance. It's no small feat to present such a grand coming together and coming undone against an equally complex and theatrical backdrop. I couldn't help wondering if Margaret Mitchell knew of Amelie's story (which was well covered in newspapers at the time) and fashioned Scarlett after this bewitching woman since Scarlett's personality was dead on. It's one thing to read of such a fictional character, quite another to know the subject was a real person. All in all, a terrific read. Highly recommended.

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Fortune's Children Review

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(More customer reviews)Meet Cornelius Vanderbilt, a.k.a. the Commodore. In a time when there were only 12 millionaires in America, he was worth $50 million. By the time he died, it was double. He was a ruthless miser who owned a monopoly over New York City. When he died, he passed it all down to a son who increased the fortune dramatically. When the son died, well, the grandkids spent it.
Donate pennies to charities; build mansions with the rest. This is how the remaining Vanderbilts lived for nearly a century. Would you have believed that 5th Avenue was a residential area? You should, they OWNED it. Richer than any other family in the world, the Vanderbilts had no one to compete against except themselves, constantly building larger mansions, country houses, and yachts. Their picture galleries could fill the Louvre. Their libraries could make any bookworm (and his grandkids) happy until their death. The dollar amounts that appear in every page in this book will make you rethink the real value of $1 million.
But aside from that, they have a story that's extraordinarily well written. Including details only a family member could, Arthur T. Vanderbilt II fashions a history that would make any bank jealous. Included (and to much relief) are pages of pictures and a family tree, both of which I referred back to often. His research is greater than any other I've seen, with a bibliography and notes spanning 80 pages. Quotes smother the pages and give a more than adequate description to every person, house, and ball relative to the family. An incredible story it is, containing 150 years. I commend Mr. Vanderbilt (the author) for taking the challenge, and more importantly, doing it with style.

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The Wheel and I - John Crean: Driving Fleetwood Enterprises to the Top Review

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(More customer reviews)Full disclosure: the co-author of this book is a longtime friend. That being said, I would love this book even if it were written by an arch enemy [should I acquire one.]
John Crean made a fortune in the nascent prefab home and RV trade during the post-WWII boom. He did it despite long odds [no formal education, no capital to speak of, a drinking problem, and clashes with his own management.] He's humble enough, praises others when he feels they deserve it and unleashes a few barbs at the ones who have disappointed him.
But the real joy in this book is that Washburn and Crean have fashioned an autobiography that really retains the voice of Crean. You get the f-bombs, you get the bad grammar ... but even more, you get a sense of the man and the scope of his impact on Southern California and the boom that was the American economy from 1945 through the mid-1970s.
So the history lesson is great. It is akin to reading an expanded "Inside USA" essay by Gunther on Crean.
The part that I didn't expect, and that I truly appreciated, was the business insight that Crean showed. Not once, not twice, but myriad times Crean finds himself with some new bright-eyed theorist who knows how to run the business better than he does. This book unflinchingly shows the reader the formula for Crean's success. He developed a few foundational business principles. He kept his finger on the customer's wants and needs [the original "KISS" practitioner, it seems.] He developed and promoted people within his organization. And when his company floundered, he took the reins.
In this era of consultants and outsourcers and middle managers galore, Crean should be regarded as an object lesson on what to do. Sad that so few have read this book. I, for my part, recommend it heartily.

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Blood on the River: James Town, 1607 Review

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(More customer reviews)The importance and fun of historical fiction is the ability to "live" in another time and place and understand something about that point in history. As a librarian, I've purchased fiction and nonfiction books about Jamestown and I've provided educational videos on the topic. I have studied the settlement along with the kids through elementary, junior high and high school, blah-blah-blah.
I have just finished Elisa Carbone's superb Blood on the River.
NOW I get it.
Other books have accurately and factually recounted the history of the James Town settlement but Carbone has brought it to life. Using real characters from the colony's registers, she has recreated a story that is an absolute page turner. We smell the stench of the ships and see the frost on the ground. The distrust between the English and the Wampanoag is palpable. The gnawing hunger, the "summer sickness" and the scent of wood fires is so strong, I felt like I was within the palisade walls.
Young Samuel Collier is bound as a page to Captain John Smith on the eve of his departure for Virginia. Sam's fierce temper and survival sense will be his undoing and his salvation in the new land. The perils of the voyage at sea and the political turmoil that plagued the expedition from the onset are vividly described. The useless "gentlemen" resent the common sense of John Smith and his lack of respect for his "betters." Before they even arrive on Virginia's shores, the "gentlemen" have clapped Smith in irons and plan to hang him.
Sam clearly sees the issues confronting the colony but as a servant he is powerless. His loyalty to Smith serves him well. Smith teaches him to fight with a sword and how to use a musket. He also arranges for Sam to stay with a friendly Indian tribe during the second winter so he can learn their language and survival skills instead of going hungry at the settlement. Sam revels in his time with the tribe, realizing their lifestyle is perfectly adapted to the harsh environment. He respects their traditions and their pride as a nation. It is with great reluctance that he returns to James Town when winter is over.
The reader fumes along with Sam at the stupidity of the Virginia Company. Their reliance on old world ideas of "gentlemen" leaders dooms many settlers to death. It is only when John Smith is voted on, by the colonists, to become their president that the colony's fortunes take a turn for the better. The story of Pocahontas is part of the storyline. Carbone chooses a likely version of her rescue of John Smith and depicts her as the child she really was at the time.
In the afterword, Carbone includes excellent notes and suggestions for additional reading. She describes her research which was fascinating to read on its own.
"I asked teachers and librarians for suggestions. "What would you most like to see a new novel about?" I asked. The answer came over and over: Jamestown.
I thought, "That old story? John Smith and Pocahontas AGAIN? Booooooring!"In Carbone's hands -- boring? Not at all! This is some of the best historical fiction I have read since The Blood Red Horse. Highly recommended.

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Vanishing Orange County (CA) (Images of America) (Images of America (Arcadia Publishing)) Review

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(More customer reviews)It's well written - photos aren't that well printede. I ordered it and awaited it's arrival - and there it was as a counter promotion at my local Ace Hardware store. For less than I ordered it for. Not too happy.

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Curious New England: The Unconventional Traveler's Guide to Eccentric Destinations Review

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(More customer reviews)My wife and I structured our honeymoon this month around this book, and we had a grand time touring its recommended destinations in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maine, and New Hampshire. As we both work in horror publishing, we particularly enjoyed places like America's Stonehenge and H.P. Lovecraft's grave.
Buyers of this book should be forewarned to call ahead to every place they plan on visiting. We discovered that although this book was published this year, some of its information is already out-of-date. For instance, the aliens apparently beamed-up the UFO Museum two years ago. In some cases, the information was incomplete (e.g., the Occult Museum is only open to tour groups of 10 or more), or vague (e.g., road directions to the Bow Wow Villa (now no longer called that, by the way) and the Museum of Bad Art).
Overall, though, the book has lots of interesting information, and our vacation wouldn't have been quite as nice if we hadn't read it.

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Points the way to all the tantalizing treats and terrifying treasures that remain tucked away in overlooked museums, private collections, and forgotten recesses of this very special region.

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Chris Burden: A Twenty-Year Survey Review

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(More customer reviews)One of the best resources for almost his entire body of work. Even if you have never seen his work in person, this book covers the meaning behind each of the works so compleatly that it makes sense to even the newest of his fans. For those who have seen his work it goes to show what a true genius he is.

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